May 2025 TOK Essay Titles – Title 5 Explained

To what extent do you agree with the claim “all models are wrong, but some are useful” (attributed to George Box)? Discuss with reference to mathematics and one other area of knowledge.

British statistician George E. P. Box wrote in his book, “Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.” He also wrote, “all models are approximations. Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne in mind.”

If you pay attention to the first quote, you’ll see that he asks “how wrong” a model has to be to not be useful, which is the TOK’s “to what extent” and as a result makes this essay title a double “to what extent” probably to compensate for the lack of it in other titles. The question is how much you agree with George Box on how wrong a model has to be that we consider it useless. But bear in mind that “wrong” is interpreted differently in different areas of knowledge and their fields.

In geometry, you may call them assumptions, while in statistics models are approximations. In psychology, models are estimations, and in economics are just educated guesses. You may disagree with me on this classification of models but we can both agree that you now understand what is meant by “wrong” in different areas of knowledge.

My quantitative gastronomic model is an input-output one. When I have a certain amount of pepperoni pizza with sambal and Coke as an input, the processes in my digestive system and brain cells result in an output of happiness and joy. Is this a "right" model? Definitely not. Does it work? Every single time. I am also a night owl who sleeps way past midnight. And I feel like I am more productive during those hours. This is also a wrong model that rarely produces good results. Based on these two examples I can’t fully agree with the claim made in the title.

You need real-life examples from mathematics and (probably) human sciences to show different outcomes of using "wrong" models. Based on the examples you choose you can conclude your essay with different levels of agreement with George Box. Models in biology, physics, and history are also quite interesting to look at.

As I always advise my students, choose areas that you are interested in or you are really good at. In this way, you can write a much better essay compared to going for examples “that nobody else chooses.”

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May 2025 TOK Essay Titles